What is the impact of climate change on coffee?

Climate change poses one of the most serious structural threats to global coffee production. Rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, and increased frequency of extreme weather events are already affecting the viability of existing coffee growing regions - and projections suggest the problem will intensify significantly over coming decades.

The core problem for Arabica is temperature sensitivity. Arabica thrives in a relatively narrow temperature band - roughly 18-22°C average - at altitude. As temperatures rise, suitable growing conditions shift upward in altitude. In many origins, there is limited land available at higher elevations, meaning the total area suitable for Arabica cultivation is effectively shrinking. Research published in journals including Nature Plants has projected that without adaptation, up to 50% of current Arabica growing land could become unsuitable by 2050 under high-emissions scenarios.

In practical terms, this means more unpredictable harvests, higher incidence of coffee leaf rust (which thrives in warmer, wetter conditions), more frequent drought and frost events at origin, and increasing quality variability from season to season. The specialty coffee industry's response involves supporting climate adaptation (shade trees, drought-resistant varieties, altitude migration), reducing its own carbon footprint, and funding research into climate-resilient Coffea species. For buyers, climate change is already affecting the consistency and availability of coffees from some origins.