A turbulent week for U.S. coffee policy
The past week has reshaped the coffee conversation worldwide. After months of volatility, the United States has removed almost all tariffs on green coffee imports. It’s a sharp departure from the administration’s earlier approach and comes after a sustained rise in food prices and mounting public frustration. Political pressure -not strategic planning - forced the shift, especially as living costs became a defining issue in the U.S. and criticism of the government’s economic handling intensified.
Coffee was an odd choice for tariffs from the beginning. The U.S. cannot produce coffee at any meaningful scale. Hawaii contributes less than 1% of global output, and the rest must be imported from the Coffee Belt. When tariffs were introduced earlier this year, prices surged. Coffee became more than 40% more expensive year-on-year by early autumn. This wasn’t a surprise to anyone in the industry, but it has left roasters and consumers dealing with the consequences of a policy that pushed up prices in the name of self-sufficiency.
The rollback and what it changes
Last week’s reversal swept away tariffs on more than 200 agricultural products, including coffee, orange juice, bananas, and beef. For dozens of producing countries, the 10% duties imposed earlier in the year fell away immediately. Higher tariffs on Asian coffee producers were also removed, giving them direct access to the U.S. market without additional tax.
These changes don’t represent a new long-term strategy. They reflect the political cost of rising grocery bills and poor polling around affordability. With the administration under pressure, the tariff structure that contributed to inflation was abruptly dismantled. The hope in Washington is that import savings eventually translate into lower retail prices. That depends on how wholesalers and retailers pass costs through the chain.
Brazil’s exclusion and the political backdrop
Brazil - responsible for around a third of all U.S. coffee imports - was initially the outlier. A 40% tariff on Brazilian coffee remained in place even as other duties were removed. This was widely understood as political. Brazil had been targeted earlier in the year as part of a dispute linked to the prosecution of former president Jair Bolsonaro. The decision distorted the market, made U.S. sourcing more expensive, and placed pressure on smaller origins to fill the gap.
Brazil pushed for its own agreement and entered negotiations for a separate bilateral arrangement. The world’s largest coffee exporter found itself temporarily locked out of its biggest market by a trade policy that had already been criticised as unpredictable and economically damaging.
A second reversal in less than a week
By the end of the week, the final barrier fell. The U.S. removed the 40% tariff on Brazilian coffee, backdated the change to 13 November, and confirmed that duties collected since that date will be refunded. This effectively ends the tariff swings that coffee traders have been navigating since August.
Tariffs on Brazilian beef, cocoa, and fruit were also lifted. These changes land at a time when severe weather has tightened supply for both coffee and cacao, pushing prices higher. U.S. officials have suggested that easing import taxes may help stabilise prices, though it remains unclear how quickly any savings will reach consumers.
Impact on producing countries
The rapid changes highlight how exposed producing countries are to political decisions made far from origin. Coffee production depends on long cycles. Policies made overnight can reshape trade flows, landed costs, and purchasing strategies with immediate effect.
With all coffee tariffs now removed, the U.S. market should settle. Some origins may hold on to the attention they gained while Brazil was disadvantaged. Asia, in particular, may see sustained interest if U.S. buyers choose to diversify rather than rely as heavily on a single supplier These shifts will depend on pricing, reliability, and the risk appetite of roasters who have just been through a period of uncertainty created entirely by policy, not by supply.
For Brazil, the week has been a reminder of how vulnerable even the largest exporters can be when trade becomes a political tool. For smaller producers, it reinforces how important stable, predictable trade policy is to the sustainability of the sector.
