Is the Strait of Hormuz about to disrupt your coffee supply?

Escalating tensions between the United States, Israel and Iran have pushed the Middle East into another period of deep instability. In response to recent military strikes, Iran has threatened to disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz - one of the most critical shipping corridors in the world. The effects on global shipping, and on green coffee specifically, are already being felt.

No matter your views on the current conflict, this is a situation with genuine complexity on all sides. The Iranian regime has long faced serious criticism for its domestic repression. At the same time, Western intervention in the Middle East carries a well-documented history of producing long-term, often destabilising, consequences. Both of those realities coexist. What we want to do here is help you understand how geopolitical risk translates into real pressure on supply chains, pricing, and access to green coffee - and what that means for you as a roaster.

To understand what this means in practice for the coffee trade, we spoke to Sam at Keynote Coffee, who gave us a clearer picture of how these disruptions are playing out across different origins.

What is the Strait of Hormuz?

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most strategically important maritime passages in the world. Geographically, it is a narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman - Iran to the north, Oman to the south - and at its narrowest point it is only around 33 kilometres wide. Around 3,000 ships pass through it every month, carrying crude oil, liquefied natural gas, and other critical cargo.

Under international maritime law, countries may exercise control over territorial seas extending twelve nautical miles from their coastline, meaning that much of the strait falls within Iranian territorial waters. Because such a vast share of global energy exports moves through this corridor, even the threat of disruption is enough to trigger reactions across oil markets and global shipping. Shipping markets respond to that uncertainty immediately, and coffee is no exception.

How does this affect the coffee trade?

The impact is uneven depending on origin, but no part of the global coffee trade is entirely insulated.

Vietnamese and Asian origins feel it most directly. Vietnam is the world's largest producer of Robusta, and it is the most widely traded Robusta on the market. Shipping routes from Southeast Asia pass through, or are heavily influenced by, the waters around the strait and the broader regional network of lanes. We are already seeing freight rates from Vietnam roughly double over the past week. Beyond cost, it is becoming increasingly difficult to secure bookings at all, and longer routing adds both time and further expense on top of that. These origins are the ones that are experiencing the most immediate impact.

East African and Central American origins are less directly exposed, but they are not unaffected. Global shipping is a deeply interconnected system. When significant disruption occurs in one corridor, capacity gets redirected toward managing that disruption - and that tightening has knock-on effects everywhere.

Empty containers are a bigger problem than they might seem. During the Covid disruptions, there was a striking example of how lopsided trade flows compound shipping problems. Because the UK and Europe are net importers - we receive far more than we send - shipping lines often found it more cost-effective to send empty containers back to China rather than route them to pick up lower-value return cargo. Disruption accelerates this imbalance, leaving containers in the wrong places and reducing available capacity for everyone.

War risk premiums are already being applied. Insurance is one of the less-visible costs in shipping, but one of the most significant when conflict enters the picture. When underwriters classify a region as a war-risk zone, shipowners face substantially higher premiums - and those costs are passed directly to shippers through surcharges and higher base freight rates. Origins with routing close to conflict zones, such as Vietnam, are already seeing these premiums applied. Most other origins are not yet directly affected in this way, but the broader rate environment will shift regardless.

Plan for delays. Industry contacts are currently planning for 15 to 30 day delays on affected routes.

Why does this matter beyond pricing?

It is worth stepping back from the logistics for a moment. Smallholder farmers and producers often operate on thin margins in economies that are often heavily dependent on export income. When freight rates rise, when bookings become scarce, when lead times stretch - the pressure does not fall evenly along the value chain. Larger buyers and bigger operations have more leverage to absorb disruption. Smaller producers, and the traders who work closely with them, do not.

This is why we think it matters to understand these dynamics, not just as abstract market forces, but as things that have real consequences for the people growing the coffee. Instability in a shipping lane thousands of miles from a farm in Ethiopia or Colombia still finds its way to that farm eventually - through the prices offered, the contracts that become harder to fulfil, the uncertainty that makes long-term planning feel impossible.

What should you do?

If you are a home roaster or small-batch professional buying green coffee right now, a few practical thoughts:

• Buy ahead where you can. If there are origins or lots you rely on, now is a sensible time to secure stock rather than waiting. Lead times are extending and availability on certain origins - particularly Vietnamese Robusta - may tighten further.

• Expect some price movement. We will be transparent with you about how these pressures affect what we are able to offer and at what price. Our commitment to fair, traceable sourcing does not change, but we will not pretend the cost environment is static.

• Stay informed. Understanding why prices move and why availability shifts makes you a better, more knowledgeable roaster.